People ask me all the time—“Where do you think the market’s headed?” “Are rates going up or down?” “Should I get in now or wait?” I get it. The urge to know what’s coming next is strong—especially when it comes to your hard-earned money. But after years of watching this game up close, I can tell you: short-term predictions are mostly a waste of time.
And yet, every year like clockwork, Wall Street lines up with their forecasts—confident, precise, and mostly wrong. Christine Benz at Morningstar, generally an excellent columnist, recently compiled the latest round of these 2025 stock market predictions. Click here to view.
Same story as always: a wide range of guesses about where the S&P 500 is headed, most of them destined to miss the mark.
One Market, Wildly Different Bets
Vanguard cut their 10-year US stock return forecast to 2.8%-4.8%, down from last year’s 4.2%-6.2%. Meanwhile, BlackRock bumped theirs up to 6.2%. Research Affiliates says you should plan to earn a measly 3.4%. And GMO? Brace yourself—it predicts a negative 6.3% real return over the next seven years! That’s not a typo: same market, same time horizon—wildly different numbers.
Remind me again why anyone takes these predictions seriously?
Oops—They Were All Wrong Anyway
Financial advisor and chart guru Charlie Bilello wisely compared the “experts’” predictions for the 2024 S&P 500 versus how 2024 actually turned out. Not only did these experts disagree widely, but every single one lowballed the actual return—big firms with big budgets—all dead wrong.
And yet, they’ll all be back next year with the same act. Why? Because the game isn’t accuracy. It’s marketing. Keep people watching, keep them trading, keep collecting fees—like a casino that doesn’t care who wins because the house always gets paid.
The Hedgehog Problem
Here’s the deeper truth: the prediction business isn’t about accuracy—it’s about confidence. As Professor Philip Tetlock famously found, the worst forecasters are often the loudest and most confident! He called them “hedgehogs”—the folks with one big idea that they push relentlessly.
They sound smart because they speak with certainty. And certainty draws a crowd. Investors want to believe someone knows what’s coming. Hedgehogs feed that need.
Think Like a Fox
But Tetlock’s research proved that the “foxes”—the ones who admit the world is messy, who weigh probabilities, stay humble, and adjust—were consistently more accurate. The catch? No one gets paid to say “It depends,” or “We don’t know.”
That nuance doesn’t sell research, move assets, or justify hefty fees. Bold forecasts keep people listening, trading, and paying. Wall Street knows the game. The prediction machine runs because it’s profitable—whether the forecasts pan out or not.
How Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Predicts and Plans
Now, none of this means we ignore the future. It means we stop pretending precision is possible. Smart planning isn’t about guessing next year’s return—it’s about focusing on what endures.
Jeff Bezos explained it perfectly when asked how he plans for Amazon’s future. He said he doesn’t waste time trying to predict what might change. Instead, he focuses relentlessly on what won’t. Thirty years from now, people will still want low prices, fast delivery, and massive selection.
He builds everything around that. No fancy forecasts, no guessing interest rates or AI trends—just clarity on what customers will always care about.
What’s Going to CHANGE in the Next 10 Years? | Jeff Bezos | Youtube
Focus On What Endures
This long-term, big-picture mindset is the foxy, wise approach for investors. Stop asking where the S&P will be next year and start asking: What forces are so fundamental that they’ll keep driving markets for decades? No one really knows where the short-term is headed, and we need to stop trying to guess. What truly matters is where they’re heading over the next 20 or 30 years.
And here, the logic and track record are much clearer. Stocks, real estate, and businesses have all proven to be powerful long-term wealth builders. Not because anyone predicted the exact path, but because human drive and progress—productivity, innovation, and growth—keep pushing forward. And those investing in growth assets get compensated. That’s probably not changing.
And Control What You Can
We also should be asking, what can I do to vastly improve my chances of financial endurance and wealth creation, regardless of how any specific investment does? Focus instead on the compelling, boring things you can actually control—timeless moves that reliably build wealth:
✅ Daven and improve your bitachon
✅ Maximize your income-earning potential.
✅ Save and invest consistently
✅ Own growth assets for the long haul
✅ Keep taxes and fees low
✅ Stay disciplined during booms and busts
Ignore the Noise, Stick to the Plan
These are the enduring, predictable drivers of wealth-building. Not flashy forecasts—but steady, thoughtful action over time. That’s how real wealth gets built.
So next time you see a “2025 S&P Forecast” headline, do yourself a favor—ignore it. Let the “experts” keep “predicting.” You? Stick to the game plan.
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